I was going to write a blog post about the outcome of the election and what it means for health policy going forward. But I’m stressed enough with work, so I don’t need to add that to my to do list. But at the same time, I cannot be completely silent on the matter. So what you’re going to get is an abbreviated post and several great links. It seems no one saw our next president, Donald J. Trump, coming. No one thought he was a serious candidate. No one thought he would win the GOP nomination. And, even until late last night, few thought he had any real chance of winning the Presidency. So much for what people thought. I hope the same principle applies now, because many people think he won’t be a good president, and won’t govern effectively. For the sake of the country I love and the people that comprise it, I really hope he proves them wrong.
Of course, the rhetoric around repealing Obamacare has already begun. It certainly looks like, with control of both the House and Senate, President Trump will be able to sign such a bill repealing the ACA into law. Whether or not he will, or what popular provisions he and the Congress may try to keep truly is unknown. I say this because, even as half of the country seems to think the sky is falling, the optics of taking insurance away from more than 20 million Americans are not good. I don’t think things look good for the future of Obamacare, but I also thought Clinton was going to win last night. In fact, I’m already envisioning how Republicans will blame Obama when insurance premiums increase in 2018 following the repeal of the ACA in 2017. But, right now, it’s all conjecture. As things move forward next year, we’ll know more and I’ll do my best to weigh in then. If you want to see the immediate “hot takes” from those in the health policy world, I suggest you read this summary from Kaiser Health News, this excellent overview from Tim Jost at the Health Affairs Blog, and these pieces from Toluse Olorunnipa and Alex Wayne at Bloomberg Politics, and Susan Cornwell and Richard Cowan at Reuters.
Best of all, I highly recommend you read this heartfelt reflection from Aaron Carroll of The Incidental Economist. After I read Aaron’s piece, I thought to myself, what did I write in my first post when I created this blog back in July 2009? If you’re curious, here’s the link. This was a project born in the midst of the debate over the ACA–some 6 months into Obama’s first term. It is a project that has withered considerably as I confronted life on the tenure track, and the reality that my success would be measured by how many grants I received and how many peer-reviewed publications I had, rather than how much time I spent writing a blog for public consumption. More than once, I’ve contemplated retiring this space. After all, blogs only thrive when fed a steady stream of regular content. I’ve tried to recruit guest authors and co-bloggers to spread the workload around a bit, with limited success. But the vision remains. And, while some period of mourning is natural (even healthy), there remains increasingly important work to be done. Today, I’m thankful that I still have this space to write. My commitment to the cause of making our healthcare system better for everyone remains strong, as does my desire to make the complex topics of health policy and health services research accessible to all. For now, my writing is likely to remain sparse, but my passion is renewed. The cause is too important to abandon amidst the politics. I hope you’ll join me.